Reading paths · Five steps

Thinking about thinking

Your own judgement is the instrument you can least easily calibrate. This is the order that makes that useful rather than merely alarming.

1. 01 Predictably IrrationalDan Ariely

   Predictably Irrational

   Dan Ariely

   Conceptual · Accessible · 4 min read

   Start with the failures one at a time, each tied to an experiment you can picture. It is concrete before it is systematic.

2. 02 Thinking, Fast and SlowDaniel Kahneman

   Thinking, Fast and Slow

   Daniel Kahneman

   Foundation · Advanced · 4 min read

   Now the account underneath them. It is long and it assumes you already believe the effects are real — which, after the first book, you do.

3. 03 SuperforecastingPhilip E. Tetlock

   Superforecasting

   Philip E. Tetlock

   Conceptual · Core · 3 min read

   The turn from diagnosis to practice: what the people who are measurably less wrong actually do differently.

4. 04 Thinking in BetsAnnie Duke

   Thinking in Bets

   Annie Duke

   Strategic · Accessible · 4 min read

   How to act on all this when you cannot wait for certainty, which is the situation you are usually in.

5. 05 NoiseDaniel Kahneman

   Noise

   Daniel Kahneman

   Conceptual · Advanced · 3 min read

   Last, because it is the error the first four do not cover: not bias in one direction, but scatter. Hardest to see, easiest to ignore.

A path is an order, not a syllabus. Every step says why it sits where it does, so you can disagree with the sequence on the evidence rather than on faith.